Japan’s Labor Crunch and a Cautious Immigration Policy
Why has Takaichi’s government kept immigration policy restrictive despite Japan’s demographic decline and labor shortages?
Japan has been facing a severe demographic crisis. In 2023, people aged 65 and older accounted for 29% of Japan’s population, the highest share in the world. As of June 2025, Japan’s foreign resident population stood at roughly 3.96 million. Yet Japan may still need 6.7–11 million more workers by 2040. This labor supply would be needed both to meet demand and to keep annual growth near 1.2 percent.
Yet immigration policy has become more restrictive under conservative political leadership. During her leadership campaign, Sanae Takaichi even called for a crackdown on illegal residents. When campaigning for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency in September 2025, Takaichi stated that individuals who “come [to Japan] with financial motives and claim that they are refugees” should be sent back to their home countries. Her government has framed immigration around the need for “orderly coexistence” between foreign residents and local communities.
The Japanese government, too, has paired tougher immigration regulations with stronger measures on social integration, particularly in language and education. Foreign residents are expected to learn Japanese and to become familiar with local norms and institutions so that they can live smoothly within their communities. The visa screening process will be more stringent, particularly for those with a history of legal violations, unpaid taxes, or unpaid medical bills. Foreign nationals failing to fulfill these obligations risk losing their status as permanent residents.
This package is intended to alleviate public anxiety and feelings of unfairness, while assuring Japanese citizens and foreign residents that they can coexist peacefully.
The government also plans to raise visa fees, starting in fiscal year 2026. This move aims to fund upgrades to screening and monitoring systems, with renewal costs potentially increasing from 3,000 to 15,000 yen and from 6,000 to 40,000 yen, respectively.
Rapid aging and labor shortages are pushing Japan toward greater reliance on foreign workers. As one of the oldest populations among major economies, and with the birth rate remaining low, Japan faces chronic labor shortages across a wide range of industries. In 2025, labor shortages were estimated to cost Japan about USD 103.2 billion in lost economic opportunity. Profit growth has also lagged, raising concerns about Japan’s competitiveness and its future economic prospects in the global arena.
Japan needs migrant labor, but the government is tightening immigration rules. While external pressures are important, they alone cannot determine state behavior. Instead, they are filtered through intervening domestic variables, such as elite perceptions, national identity, and electoral incentives.
Japan has a long-standing self-image as a culturally homogeneous society. Concerns about social cohesion and cultural identity continue to influence attitudes toward immigration. In Japanese society, identity politics, rooted in a complex historical and cultural context, plays a crucial role in how immigration is perceived. The ideal of homogeneity, often cast in ethnic and cultural terms, has long made large-scale immigration sensitive.
This tendency dates back to Japan’s post-war period, when national construction reinforced a sharp distinction between the Japanese and “others.” Such narratives have been embedded in immigration laws and regulations that favor short-term, tightly regulated migration over long-term settlement. Hence, policymakers tend to approach migration cautiously, fearing that large-scale or permanent inflows could undermine societal stability.
Additionally, electoral competition intensified pressure on the ruling LDP. Nationalist and anti-immigration political forces mobilized voters around immigration and national identity. In the July 2025 upper-house election, the ruling coalition lost its majority, mainly due to the growing influence of populist parties. For instance, the ultraconservative Sanseito party, whose anti-immigration platform centered on a “Japanese First” agenda, attracted significant media attention. As the political landscape shifted rightward, Takaichi was compelled to harden her immigration stance to seek conservative support.
How political elites view immigration also matters. The July 2025 Upper House election placed immigration at the forefront of political debate, with public discussions revolving around foreign residents’ property acquisition, traffic accidents, crime, and public order. For many conservative elites, a tougher line on immigration helps them preserve their authority and influence. Elites may therefore resist reforms that could alienate their supporters, many of whom view increased immigration as a potential threat to social stability. As a result, immigration is treated as a temporary economic solution rather than a pathway toward long-term demographic integration.
In short, the Takaichi administration’s conservative stance on immigration reflects not only economic needs but also domestic politics, electoral competition, and elite calculations.
Nguyen Ngoc Que Anh is a sophomore majoring in International Relations at the Faculty of History and International Relations, Ho Chi Minh City-University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University. She can be reached at [email protected]
Japan has been facing a severe demographic crisis. In 2023, people aged 65 and older accounted for 29% of Japan’s population, the highest share in the world. As of June 2025, Japan’s foreign resident population stood at roughly 3.96 million. Yet Japan may still need 6.7–11 million more workers by 2040. This labor supply would be needed both to meet demand and to keep annual growth near 1.2 percent.
Yet immigration policy has become more restrictive under conservative political leadership. During her leadership campaign, Sanae Takaichi even called for a crackdown on illegal residents. When campaigning for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency in September 2025, Takaichi stated that individuals who “come [to Japan] with financial motives and claim that they are refugees” should be sent back to their home countries. Her government has framed immigration around the need for “orderly coexistence” between foreign residents and local communities.
The Japanese government, too, has paired tougher immigration regulations with stronger measures on social integration, particularly in language and education. Foreign residents are expected to learn Japanese and to become familiar with local norms and institutions so that they can live smoothly within their communities. The visa screening process will be more stringent, particularly for those with a history of legal violations, unpaid taxes, or unpaid medical bills. Foreign nationals failing to fulfill these obligations risk losing their status as permanent residents.
This package is intended to alleviate public anxiety and feelings of unfairness, while assuring Japanese citizens and foreign residents that they can coexist peacefully.
The government also plans to raise visa fees, starting in fiscal year 2026. This move aims to fund upgrades to screening and monitoring systems, with renewal costs potentially increasing from 3,000 to 15,000 yen and from 6,000 to 40,000 yen, respectively.
Rapid aging and labor shortages are pushing Japan toward greater reliance on foreign workers. As one of the oldest populations among major economies, and with the birth rate remaining low, Japan faces chronic labor shortages across a wide range of industries. In 2025, labor shortages were estimated to cost Japan about USD 103.2 billion in lost economic opportunity. Profit growth has also lagged, raising concerns about Japan’s competitiveness and its future economic prospects in the global arena.
Japan needs migrant labor, but the government is tightening immigration rules. While external pressures are important, they alone cannot determine state behavior. Instead, they are filtered through intervening domestic variables, such as elite perceptions, national identity, and electoral incentives.
Japan has a long-standing self-image as a culturally homogeneous society. Concerns about social cohesion and cultural identity continue to influence attitudes toward immigration. In Japanese society, identity politics, rooted in a complex historical and cultural context, plays a crucial role in how immigration is perceived. The ideal of homogeneity, often cast in ethnic and cultural terms, has long made large-scale immigration sensitive.
This tendency dates back to Japan’s post-war period, when national construction reinforced a sharp distinction between the Japanese and “others.” Such narratives have been embedded in immigration laws and regulations that favor short-term, tightly regulated migration over long-term settlement. Hence, policymakers tend to approach migration cautiously, fearing that large-scale or permanent inflows could undermine societal stability.
Additionally, electoral competition intensified pressure on the ruling LDP. Nationalist and anti-immigration political forces mobilized voters around immigration and national identity. In the July 2025 upper-house election, the ruling coalition lost its majority, mainly due to the growing influence of populist parties. For instance, the ultraconservative Sanseito party, whose anti-immigration platform centered on a “Japanese First” agenda, attracted significant media attention. As the political landscape shifted rightward, Takaichi was compelled to harden her immigration stance to seek conservative support.
How political elites view immigration also matters. The July 2025 Upper House election placed immigration at the forefront of political debate, with public discussions revolving around foreign residents’ property acquisition, traffic accidents, crime, and public order. For many conservative elites, a tougher line on immigration helps them preserve their authority and influence. Elites may therefore resist reforms that could alienate their supporters, many of whom view increased immigration as a potential threat to social stability. As a result, immigration is treated as a temporary economic solution rather than a pathway toward long-term demographic integration.
In short, the Takaichi administration’s conservative stance on immigration reflects not only economic needs but also domestic politics, electoral competition, and elite calculations.
Nguyen Ngoc Que Anh is a sophomore majoring in International Relations at the Faculty of History and International Relations, Ho Chi Minh City-University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University. She can be reached at [email protected]
Từ khoá: Japan immigration Takaichi demographic labor
